Under the title: "Could a war break out between Morocco and Algeria?" The French newspaper "Le Figaro" said that the killing of three Algerians at the border between Western Sahara and Mauritania in a bombing attributed to Algeria by Morocco," which denied this", has exacerbated tensions.
Algeria alerted the United Nations and the African Union to its “willingness and ability to assume its responsibilities in protecting its citizens.” But the escalation began as soon as the news of the severing of diplomatic relations was announced. Algeria announced that it does not intend to renew the contract to operate the Maghreb-European gas pipeline from which Algeria exports gas to Spain via a pipeline passing through Morocco, which entered into force this week.
Last September, Algeria closed its airspace, as well as a section of the national road linking 900 km from north to south with the city of Bouarfa in Agadir, Morocco. In October, Algiers demanded the withdrawal of the Moroccan army from the Guerguerat border crossing, a demilitarized zone located on the only road to Mauritania in the far south of Western Sahara. President Abdelmadjid Tebboune announced, unambiguously targeting Morocco: “If someone is looking for us, I swear to God, it (the war) will not end.”
Finally, Algeria closed the door to any negotiations by rejecting the UN resolution issued last Friday to extend the mandate of MINURSO (the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara), which called for the resumption of talks between Algeria, Morocco, Western Sahara and Mauritania. Moroccans, who considered the severing of diplomatic relations “unjustified,” are in a wait-and-see situation despite the military attacks of the Sahrawis, which have doubled in recent weeks. A Moroccan source told AFP that since the ceasefire began in November, six soldiers from the Royal Armed Forces have been killed. But King Mohammed VI announced on Saturday that "the Moroccanness of the Sahara will not be on the agenda of any negotiations." A Moroccan observer asserts: "They are preparing for war, but they don't want to be the ones to start it."
On the other hand, Le Figaro considers that the choice of Said Chanegriha, chief of staff of the Algerian army since 2019, is not strange to the fourteen years he spent on the border with Morocco at the head of the third military region. Moroccan journalist Ali Mrabet fears, "The Moroccans, like the Algerians, have no desire to start a war, but when we have over-armed ourselves for many years, as they did, it is good to use it one day." A former Algerian politician, who spoke on condition of anonymity, asserts: “Moroccans and Algerians have been preparing for war for fifty years. In 1963, they actually clashed during the Sand War. The army is ready, but starting a war requires political will first.”
Le Figaro indicated that Algeria is the largest buyer of arms in Africa, with a value of 9.7 billion dollars in 2020, and Morocco increased its spending on armaments by more than 30% in 2020 compared to 2019. Together, the two countries account for more than 60% of arms purchases in Africa.
The newspaper added that the arms race, according to the Sipri Institute for Strategic Studies, has stoked tensions over Western Sahara; She explained that if the Moroccan and Algerian armies have about the same number of men, more or less than 15,000, it is difficult to compare, given their different performance, strategies, level of training or areas to be defended. “In the air force, their forces are roughly equal. But the ground armies are by no means comparable, explains Akram Khareef, a weapons specialist. For example, with regard to the new generation of tanks: There are 380 tanks in Morocco, compared to about 2,000 tanks in Algeria.
And Le Figaro went on to clarify that many Moroccan and Algerian analysts agree that if there is a war, it will be waged on at least two fronts, southern and northern: “If hostilities erupt in the south (on the border with Western Sahara), Morocco, which is no match for the war on Flat and open land, he will have to export the war to another place, for example by targeting urban centers or oil terminals in the Algerian west,” the newspaper quotes an Algerian specialist in security issues. This is why the danger of a generalized war must be taken seriously. But the Algerians who are preparing for this scenario are in this case targeting the military and political decision-making centers in Morocco. As a result, it will also be a war of limited time,” according to the Algerian security expert.
Le Figaro pointed to information revealed by Africa Intelligence earlier that Rabat plans to manufacture drones in cooperation with BlueBird Aero Systems, a subsidiary of the Israeli Industries Group (IAI).
The Algerian security expert admits that “in the event of a general war, the Israelis can help the Moroccans target oil or gas facilities or carry out other such strikes.” The Algerians, for their part, can count on Russia, the main supplier of arms to their country.
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