Morocco. Algeria
France is one of the countries that contributed to making the world map during the last two centuries, due to its colonization of an important part of the world, especially on the African continent, accompanied by Britain. It is now losing much of its influence, especially in its close borders, such as the Maghreb region (North Africa) and the African Sahel region, in addition to the eastern Mediterranean. The existing bilateral problems between countries in the region such as Morocco and Algeria contribute to the further weakening of Paris.
In practice, when the global map, especially the brown continent, is contemplated, France's fingerprints are evident in drawing the borders of countries and establishing others to serve its interests, in line with the saying "colonialism has gone and its interests remain." But France today is not the France of yesterday. This country is going through multiple crises, including the crisis of identity and the crisis of the quality of the position it desires on the international stage. The French are gripped by a sense of defeat, which is why the prospective populist candidate for the French presidency in the upcoming elections, Eric Zemmour, gets sympathy because he promises the French to restore their past glories.
There are three challenges facing France in its nearby areas of influence, namely, the eastern Mediterranean, then North Africa, and then the African coast, and they are different challenges and with different political players.
The Turkish Challenge:
Turkey began to reduce the French influence in the Mediterranean, especially in the east, through two main files: the Libyan file and then the Greek file. Despite the conferences hosted by Paris on Libya, the initiative on the future of this country was lost due to the Turkish weight. At the same time, it is no longer as enthusiastic about supporting Greece as it was before in the case of oil and gas exploration. This is due to Turkey's transformation into a military power, whether with its war industry or the strength of its army. On October 24, during the supervision of the Naval War College, Admiral of the French Navy Pierre Vandere stated that he spoke about the growing strength of Turkey, which it is gaining through the manufacture of dozens of warships from frigates, logistical support and corvettes, and warned against the repercussions of this on France's interests, but rather on the interests of France. He said it began to influence these interests. No one knows how the French-Turkish conflict will end, but one of its expected results, which is now beginning to appear, is the decline of France's influence.
The Sahel Challenge:
The African Sahel region, extending from Mauritania to Chad, is considered an area of French influence par excellence, and its importance is increasing, not because of terrorism, which remains secondary, but because of the quality of the minerals that the region has, which are precious metals for the present and future industries of telephones, computers and electric cars. France controlled the region through bilateral agreements of a colonial nature, then by supporting and planning coups against those whom Paris always considered rebels against "French sovereignty." During the last year, the region has witnessed a major change due to the entry of a new player, Russia, whether through armed militias such as Wagner or through official agreements with Moscow. Perhaps the turning point that constitutes the biggest blow to Paris's policy in the region is the visit of Malian Foreign Minister Abdullah Diop to Moscow last Thursday and his meeting with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov and the official request for Russian military assistance. "Whenever our country faces a difficult situation, Russia stands by our side, helped us and supported us," he said at a press conference. Now we are going through such a difficult and complicated situation, so we may ask our friend for help.” These statements are important because they give full legitimacy not only to the presence of Russia, but also to the presence of its arms, such as Wagner's forces, to confront the terrorists. Mali is a prelude to other countries in the region to follow its example in betting on Russia and China. France considers this policy a real betrayal on the part of the leaders of these countries.
The Maghreb Challenge:
Perhaps the biggest challenge facing France is its relations with North Africa, especially with two countries, Morocco and Algeria. During recent decades, when relations are tense between France and Algeria, they are good with Morocco, and when a crisis occurs with Morocco, Paris has good relations with Algeria. France has not succeeded in balancing its relations with two countries that are considered strategic to it, whether economically, politically or culturally. It remains interesting that during the current year 2021 its relations with France and Morocco deteriorated simultaneously. It worsened with Algeria due to bilateral tension, such as the memory problem with Algeria or the statements of President Macron, who denied the existence of an Algerian nation, statements that made Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune not answer Macron's phone. It witnessed tension with Morocco due to the Israeli spying program Pegasus, as bilateral visits between officials of the two countries were frozen and a number of agreements were not signed.
The Western Sahara file also plays a major role in Paris's tension with the two largest countries in North Africa. Algeria accuses France of adopting a pro-Moroccan policy, and demanded that it achieve a balance in this regard, including criticizing France for its rejection of MINURSO monitoring of human rights in the Sahara. While Morocco considers France responsible for the Sahara issue because it was a colonial power accompanied by Spain and did not liquidate colonialism according to international principles and left behind the border problems, and therefore demands from it the necessity of “historical fairness” i.e. support for its demands, especially in the Sahara conflict.
A group of diplomats, former officers and experts in international relations from France had called on various presidents, starting from Nicolas Sarkozy to Emmanuel Macron as well as Francois Hollande, in a paper called “Ibn Sina” the need to implement a balance in relations with Algeria and Morocco, but Paris did not succeed due to the weight of history. Because of the developments of events.
If in the past, France repaired relations and maintained influence, this time it is different. Algeria announced through its president, Abdelmadjid Tebboune, the reduction of economic influence by betting on Italy as a partner and then Germany. At the same time, political coordination in regional files such as Mali and Libya has been reduced by preferring coordination and dialogue with Turkey and Russia.
Although Morocco does not adopt an explicit confrontation policy with France as Algeria does, it has started betting on new players in the international scene such as Britain, albeit modestly so far, whether by betting on the English language or opening up to the Commonwealth countries linked to London.
The arc of France's interests extending from Turkey to Morocco through the Sahel region and North Africa is faltering because of the policy of these countries to get rid of what they consider "France's arrogance" and because of new players led by Turkey and Russia. The political and military class, as indicated to him on the occasions of the editorials of Le Monde newspaper and the centers of strategic thinking, recognize France's decline and deep problems with its former colonies, but it does not yet have the appropriate recipe to maintain its position and influence in the international scene.
Comments
Post a Comment